Football Betting Lines
Football Betting Lines
McNabb returns to Philly to take on Vick
2010-10-02
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: Philadelphia -6, Total: 43
Sure, this is a pretty significant early season NFC East match-up. However the real story here is Donovan McNabb’s return to the City of Brotherly love in addition to the resurgence of Philly’s new starting QB, Michael Vick.
Donovan McNabb faces his former team for the first time, while the Eagles are flying high under Michael Vick (750 pass yds, 7 total TD, 0 INT). Vick should continue to thrive against a Washington pass defense that ranks second-to-last in the league this year (326 YPG). Philly’s aggressive pass rush will have McNabb (833 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT this year) in the crosshairs against an injury-plagued Washington o-line.
Washington’s injuries extend elsewhere too. Clinton Portis has a bad wrist, but he will play Sunday. Portis has gained 873 total yards with eight touchdowns in 10 career games against the Eagles. The ’Skins also have special teams issues. Punter Josh Bidwell went down during warm-ups last week, and kicker Graham Gano punted four times with a miserable 24.0 net average.
Philadelphia has no significant injuries to report. TE Brent Celek has a bruised wrist, but he will not be affected much, if any, by the ailment. All the focus has been on Vick’s arm this year, but he has also rushed for 170 yards. The Eagles rank seventh in the NFL with 417 rushing yards, and LeSean McCoy has 209 of those yards on a whopping 6.1 yards-per-carry average. McCoy gained 168 total yards in two games against Washington last season.
The Eagles are 24-12 against the Redskins since 1992, but the teams have been more evenly matched recently with Philly holding a 5-3 edge SU and Washington with the upper hand ATS (4-3-1) in the past eight meetings. This NFL betting trend favors Washington:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 14 or more points. (28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*).
While those that plan on betting the ‘total’ should consider the following:
PHILADELPHIA is 26-8 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in home games in October games since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 20.6, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*).
Head over to Sportsbook.com now to get your 20% sign-up bonus and then spend it on the Redskins vs. Eagles NFC East showdown.
NFL: ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-14
Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seahawks to three games with four to go. Arizona can clinch the NFC West by simply winning this game. They are about a field-goal favorite at Sportsbook.com and nearly 90% of bettors have chosen to play that side of the action at last check.
The 49ers will be looking to turn the tide of recent action between these teams, as the series has seen the road team win eight straight times ATS. San Francisco has played well at home in ’09, with a 4-2 SU & ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under Mike Singletary. Both teams are 3-1 in divisional play this year, but San Francisco boasts the 20-16 Week 1 head-to-head win.
With games against Detroit and St. Louis at the back end of their schedule, the prospect of the Niners finishing .500 or better for the first time in seven seasons looms as a possibility. But hopes of their first playoff appearance since 2002 basically went out the window last week after a loss in Seattle dropped them to 5-7.
San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks.
A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Alex Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday Night Football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.
Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in ’07 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).
In this year’s opener, Smith watched Shaun Hill lead the offense on an 80-yard, game-winning touchdown drive midway through the fourth quarter of an upset win in Arizona. Frank Gore had just 30 yards on 22 carries, but his three-yard score with 7:26 remaining beat the Cardinals, 20-16. San Francisco’s defense came up big, limiting the hosts to four third-down conversions in 14 tries and picking off Kurt Warner twice.
Warner, who suffered a concussion in a Week 11 win at St. Louis, missed one game as a result but will be ready to face the Niners. He returned to the lineup for last week’s 30-17 win over Minnesota, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns.
PREDICTION: The Niners wouldn’t mind seeing Warner miss the game, as their defense ranks 28th against the pass and fifth against the run, so the outcome is likely to be determined by the Cardinals quarterback and not Smith. ARIZONA 24, SAN FRANCISCO 16
NFL: Carolina at NY Giants (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-12-19
While Pittsburgh & Tennessee battle for AFC supremacy in week 16, the Panthers and Giants will do the same in the NFC. The only difference being that the Carolina-New York game is a winner-take-all situation. The victor assumes the top spot in the NFC playoffs and gains home field advantage, the loser faces the prospects of still having to clinch a bye in week 17. New York is a 3-point favorite, but the majority of bettors have been favoring Carolina according to the Betting Trends page.
If h2h history is any indication, advantage Panthers, as they own a 3-1 SU & ATS edge in the all-time series, including 2-0 in New York. HC John Fox’s team is also on a 26-12 ATS run as a road dog, and 37-19 ATS in December games. The Giants are the defending champs though, and 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home. They are also 21-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams (>=5.65 yards/play) under Tom Coughlin.
With the Panthers and Giants flexing their muscle, the NFL decided to flex this game from Sunday afternoon to under the lights at the Meadowlands, replacing the San Diego-Tampa Bay matchup in the prime-time slot and perhaps giving the nation a preview of next month’s NFC championship.
The Giants, with the NFC East division title already in the bank, went to Dallas and came away 20-8 losers to the Cowboys, giving them a two-game losing streak and a record of 11-3. The Panthers, meanwhile, completed a sweep of the AFC West, as well as an undefeated regular season at home, crushing Denver 30-10 to improve to 11-3 and move two games in front of Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
Both of these teams have the ability to rack up chunks of yardage on the ground and make big plays through the air, so the defenses are sure to be tested all night. The Giants boast the No. 1 rushing offense in the league, averaging 148.7 yards per game, and have scored 16 times with their legs. Leading rusher Brandon Jacobs (1,002 yards, 12 touchdowns) should be ready to go after missing the Dallas game with a knee injury, but if he suffers a setback Derrick Ward (733, 2) will keep Carolina’s stop unit honest. The Panthers, with D’Angelo Williams (1,229, 14) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (751, 9), have a league-high 25 rushing touchdowns and rank third in yardage at 146.0 per game.
Of the two defenses, New York’s has done a much better job at containing the run. Opposing backs are getting about 90 yards per game and reaching paydirt once every other game. Linebacker Antonio Pierce, in the news frequently as of late for hanging out with self-inflicted gunshot victim Plaxico Burress, leads New York in tackles with 83. The Panthers, 18th against the run, have allowed 791 yards and six touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks the past three weeks and that bodes well for Eli Manning even though he’s down his best receiver.
When the Giants beat the Panthers, 27-13, in 2006, Manning struggled to complete more than half of his throws (17 of 33) but three went for touchdowns, including one to Burress.
PREDICTION: The Giants or Panthers have appeared in the NFC title game four times since the 2000 campaign with a combined record of 3-1. This could be the first year they get there together, and this game will likely determine where it would be played if that was the case. On the road, Carolina has been just ordinary in splitting six games. N.Y. GIANTS 20, CAROLINA 13
NFC Conference Championship - NY Giants @ Green Bay (6:30 PM ET – FOX)
2008-01-18
The Green Bay Packers are hosting a conference title game for the first time since their Super Bowl winning season of ’96. They will only be doing so however thanks to the help of their opponent, the New York Giants, who upset top-seeded Dallas in the divisional round. Kickoff for the NFC Championship game is scheduled for 6:42 PM ET, with Green Bay playing as a 7-point favorite.
With temperatures expected to be in the single digits for the evening start, the game figures to come down to execution. HC Mike McCarthy’s team was firing on all cylinders on Saturday versus Seattle, or at least for the game’s final 55 minutes. After surrendering 14 points to the Seahawks on two early turnovers, the Packers overcame that deficit to outscore Seattle 42-6 the rest of the way. RB Ryan Grant ran for 201 yards and 3 TD’s while QB Brett Favre threw for three other scores. The Giants meanwhile, were outgained by a 336-230 margin by the Cowboys but came up big defensively when it mattered most. The hosts have been installed as a 7-point favorite and the contest will match situational strength vs. strength since the Packers are 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS at Lambeau Field this season, while the Giants are an incredible 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road. In fact, they haven’t lost a road game since Week 1! Just one more road win will land the Giants in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2001. This will be the toughest test they faced however, as Green Bay has won its last five home games by a whopping 24.4 PPG with none of the contests being closer than 14 points. The Packers also won in New York vs. the G-Men, 35-13 in Week 2.
Here are some of the top trend angles on this game:
Favoring NY Giants
* Coughlin is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 23.0, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*)
Favoring Green Bay
* GREEN BAY is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.4, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Favoring OVER the Total
* GREEN BAY is 18-7 OVER (+10.3 Units) after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points since 1992. The average score was GREEN BAY 27.3, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 0*)
Favoring UNDER the Total
* NY GIANTS are 7-1 UNDER (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season. The average score was NY GIANTS 23.5, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
Keys to the Game
In an odd coincidence, both visiting teams in this year’s championship games lost badly in Week 2 of the season and will seek redemption. The Giants have made good on beating one team that got the best of them in the regular season and will try for two straight to go to the Super Bowl.
One of the keys will be how both teams handle the weather that is expected. With 6:00 PM kick-off in Green Bay, the long range forecast is calling for the high temperature to match Brett Favre’s number, four. In other words the often joked about frozen tundra should be quite factual this time around and both teams will have to deal with these unsavory elements.
The Giants will be expected to line up behind its offensive line, which has been a strength of the team all year. If the temperatures are this brutal, Brandon Jacobs more thundering style could be valuable. Teams have had more success running on Green Bay in the latter part of the season, (though Seattle did not) and Tom Coughlin will certainly test them. The emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw has added quickness and burst into the hole they have lacked for weeks prior. His quick darting style makes him tough to tackle. Eli Manning’s ascent has come faster then presidential candidate Mike Huckabee. Manning is playing entire games like he would play in fourth quarter winning drives. His numbers aren’t earthshaking in this New York run, nonetheless he’s made every completion at the right time and his accuracy is more of an archer. The Giants are hard to image 9-1 and 8-2 ATS on the road this campaign.
Green Bay fans and players got the present they never expected, playing at home for the NFC title. Green Bay has never lost a conference championship game at home and is 8-1 and 7-1-1 ATS this season on the hallowed Lambeau Field turf. The Packers offensive line did an awesome job in destroying a Seattle defensive line that was expected to give them troubles. The New York is even better, thou Brett Favre and the Packers were able to keep them in check in the first meeting. What coach McCarthy and Green Bay needs to do is expose the defensive backs, which is something neither Tampa Bay nor Dallas, could truly do. Protection will be the key, keeping the 38-year old signal caller upright and in the pocket, trying to expose Giants weakness.
Thou Ryan Grant won’t be expected to run for over 200 yards like he did against the Seahawks, look for him to be as or even more motivated like he was after fumbling twice. Grant will be going against the team that drafted him in the Giants.
Key Trend ~ Home teams in Conference Championships are 8-12 ATS the last decade.
With the Packers colors green and gold, this would be a good way to describe how backers of this team have cashed in on them. Green Bay has been golden in putting together 13-3-1 ATS record, the best in the NFL, and made bettors bucketful’s of the green stuff. Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point favorite at most wagering locals and is 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in the postseason the last 30 years. The Giants will be playing third straight playoff road game and are 7-3 against the spread the last three decades in this role.
StatFox Power Rating Line: Green Bay -7
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating Line: Green Bay -9.8
StatFox Forecaster: Green Bay 27, NY Giants 19
NFL - Washington at Dallas
2007-11-19
Washington’s loss to Philadelphia was critical in so many ways, not the least of which being that it was a divisional contest. Well, off that heartbreaking defeat, HC Joe Gibbs’ team will face a make-or-break game at the home of another NFC East rival, Dallas.
The Cowboys, who open up a three-game homestand, come off a a huge divisional win at New York, which allowed them to separate themselves by two-games in the standings. Dallas, at 8-1, is tied with Green Bay in the race for home field advantage in the NFC. They are a surprising 10-1/2 point favorite, and if series history holds, it’s advantage Redskins, since the underdog is on an amazing run of 14-6 SU & 17-3 ATS in the L19 h2h meetings. HC Wade Phillips’ team is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC foes in ’07.
The Redskins are steadily sliding back to the doldrums of NFL obscurity. After a strong start led by QB Jason Campbell, injuries on the offensive line have exposed new-found weaknesses and helped the opposition keep the young passer in check. Now a defense strong in talent and ability must carry the load, and recent results suggest that won’t happen. Getting healthy and getting the passing game back on track have to be top priorities.
The Dallas Cowboys are, far and away, the class of the NFC and have all of their pistons blowing. The passing of Tony Romo has proven deadly for the opposition while the rushing tandem of Marion Barber and Julius Jones is as good as any in the NFL. The defense gets after the QB with a vengeance and has done an excellent job of shutting down the run. They will put the hurt to Washington RB Clinton Portis and let speedy linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis do damage.
Keys to the Game – This is one of the true great rivalries in the NFL, in series full of astonishing moments. Tony Romo would be expected to attack weakened Washington secondary with his perimeter weapons. Washington has been decent against the run and will have to control Cowboys running game. The underdog is 21-10 ATS. It’s been proven Jason Campbell is vulnerable to blind side rushes and will fumble and he is not as effective without running game. This lays out Dallas game plan, start fast and keep the heat on Campbell until he cracks. The straight up winner of this always entertaining confrontation is 24-3-1 ATS.
Trends
The Under is 9-2 when Dallas is favored.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS off back to back road games.
StatFox Pick – Redskins plus points